Table Talk Grape Conversations 2024

A Predictive Model to Optimise Logistics Operations for the South African Table Grape Industry

BACKGROUND As a proactive response to challenges experi enced, SATI explored an alternative approach to help improve future logistics scenarios. Transnova Africa was appointed to develop a predictive logistics model aimed primarily at reducing stock levels during peak weeks of the table grape ex port season. The model will create a digital twin of the table grape supply chain; enabling industry to apply scenarios, see results and make decisions. SATI’s objective is to provide industry with insights that can guide commercial decisions, in the interest of upholding grape quality during peak export weeks. Planning and implementation has been a collab orative project and SATI thanks all stakeholders who are participating in the project and have collaborated in various ways including providing data, insights and information. WHAT IS A DIGITAL TWIN PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL? A digital twin represents a digital depiction of an actual supply chain. This helps companies and in dustries easily, quickly, and thoroughly assess a truly end-to-end set of scenarios. A prescriptive model answers the question “What should we do next?” WHY HAS SATI EMBARKED ON A DIGITAL TWIN PRE SCRIPTIVE MODEL PROJECT & WHAT ARE MODEL’S OBJECTIVES? A prescriptive logistics model is proposed to enhance supply chain efficiency and provide industry guidance and insights, with the aim of up holding grape quality during peak export periods.

It will engage with stakeholders such as produc ers, shipping lines, port authorities (Transnet), cold storage facilities, and freight forwarders to explore various port utilisation strategies and shipping schedules.

WHICH SCENARIOS ARE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE PROJECT?

The current scenarios include an assessment of the 2023/2024 season data to validate the model. Two primary scenarios will be explored:  An optimised baseline which removes capacity constraints at specific ports and  An optimised network which considers constraints at Cape Town Port and alterna tive port utilisation. In addition, the following 3 scenarios have been identified as valuable analysis and are included in the project scope:  SEASONAL EVENT: Shows the possible outcomes if certain events played out in the 2023/2024 season (e.g. vessel not able to berth, extended windbound periods, lack of key equipment etc.)  CROP SIZE: Best possible solution based on different crop sizes (e.g. regional weather impact) and regional distribution.  INDUSTRY VIEW: Best "guess model" for 2024/2025 season and ‘what if’ scenarios for 2023/2024 season, to assess the impact of a different set of variables.

PROJECT COMMISSIONED BY SATI

MODEL DEVELOPED BY TRANSNOVA AFRICA

2024 TABLE TALK 11

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